The Renewable Decade

In 2015 the world's renewable fleet stood at roughly 1,855 gigawatts, and most of it was hydropower built decades earlier. Then solar happened. Panel by panel, the newest technology on the chart became the biggest: solar capacity grew ninefold, passing wind in 2020 and hydro in 2023. By 2025 the fleet reached about 4,500 GW — and the shape of this chart is the shape of the whole story.

Capacity followed price. In 2010, electricity from a new utility-scale solar farm cost around $0.28 per kilowatt-hour — a boutique product for generous subsidy schemes. By 2015 it was $0.12. By 2025, about $0.04: an 86% collapse that made solar the cheapest new electricity in most of the world. No forecaster I can find had it falling this far, this fast.

No two grids ran the decade the same way. Brazil started ahead and stayed there — its hydro-heavy mix hovers around 85%, with a visible stumble in the 2021 drought. Germany climbed past 50% in 2023, the first big industrial economy to get there. And China's share rose even as its demand nearly doubled — the hardest trick on this chart. Toggle the countries to compare.

Tap a country to add or remove it. Colours stay with the country.

A decade is easier to feel as moments than as curves. Eight that mattered, from a conference hall in Paris to a record-smashing bid in the Gulf.

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The next five years are already largely decided — the projects are financed, the factories are built, the pledges are signed. What the last decade made cheap, this one will make ubiquitous.